With the NFL Draft talk starting to heat up significantly, I’ve decided to talk about a few things that I’ve been hearing and some thoughts on some of the big developments that we’ve seen in the last few days:
- The 2010 NFL Draft is shaping up to be one of the best in the history of the NFL. The amount of underclassmen that are entering the draft is rising very quickly with still a week left for them to declare. With a possible lockout and rookie wage scale looming, many players in college are under the impression that they need to get what they can while they still can. The depth at some of the positions (wide receiver, offensive tackle, defensive tackle, safety) is something that I haven’t since I started officially scouting since 2007. This is going to be a very fun four months as we get ready for the draft.
- In last week’s Monday Morning Roundup, I talked about how Tim Tebow’s performance in the Sugar Bowl has led to him becoming an overrated prospect. With the news that Tebow accepted his invitation to the Senior Bowl, it was also reported that as many as six GM’s had said that Tebow is worth taking in the first round after his performance in the bowl game. Now hold on a second. For four years, scouts have said that Tebow can’t be a quarterback in the NFL. Now, all of a sudden, after having a big game against a defense that ranks 44th nationally in scoring and 67th in total defense, scouts are ready to name Tebow as a first round pick? Get serious. One thing that I was taught in scouting is to NEVER look at one game, or one event (Senior Bowl, Combine), and rate a player based on that. You must use that game or event and compare it with the whole portfolio of information that the player has produced. His play in games, in the all-star games, and how he worked out at the Combine should all be put together to create a final ranking. Rating Tebow as a first round pick after the Sugar Bowl isn’t just dumb and ignorant scouting, it’s proving to us exactly how the Ryan Leaf’s and JaMarcus Russell’s of the world get taken first overall. Ironically, Russell had a great game over Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl which resulted in his draft stock soaring signficantly. The Raiders then took him first overall, and it’s been a giant trainwreck since then. If these reports are true, I seriously worry about the state of scouting in the NFL.
- The more that I see Alabama linebacker Rolando McClain, the more I get the feeling that he’s the top linebacker since Patrick Willis was selected 12th overall by the 49ers in 2007. McClain reminds me a lot of Willis in his intelligence, instincts, and leadership on the field. McClain is one of the hottest prospects in the draft and is rising on draft boards as fast as any player in the country. Keep an eye on him in the draft process.
- With the recent news that USC head coach Pete Carroll could land in Seattle with the Seahawks, this has brought up a theory that this move could have a domino effect in several ways: First, with two first round picks in April, Carroll would be in position to draft two of his own Trojans in Taylor Mays, Everson Griffen, Charles Brown, Joe McKnight, and Damian Williams. Seattle could use any of these players, and they are in position to make a play for any of them. Second, this is pure speculation, but if Carroll ends up making the move, and USC can’t get the guy that they want (Oregon State coach Mike Reilly), what if Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian went back to the school that he was the offensive coordinator for and became their head coach; and if he did that, would star quarterback Jake Locker end up deciding to declare for the 2010 draft? It’s a longshot, but something to think about. This past week I spoke to a source who actually thinks that Locker will end up declaring for the draft. Don’t be surprised if it happens. He’d be a lock for the Top 4 and would have a very good chance of going first overall.
- Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz recently made a comment that should spark a lot of interest in who the Lions will take with the No. 2 pick in the draft. Schwartz praised left tackle Jeff Backus for his play this season and talked about how he should have received more Pro Bowl votes. Assuming Schwartz isn’t already giving us a smoke screen in January, it may be safe to assume that the Lions won’t be going with an offensive lineman with their first round pick, essentially ruling out Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung. Lions’ beat writer Tom Kowalski also recently stated that the team could be looking seriously on the defensive side of the ball with their top pick. I currently have Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy going to the Lions, and I think that it’s looking more and more likely that he could end up being their pick assuming Ndamukong Suh goes to the Rams.
- I’m hearing from several different angles that many people in the league do not think that there is a quarterback (as of now) in the 2010 draft that is worthy of being taken in the first round. I couldn’t agree more with this assessment. The two top quarterback prospects, Jimmy Clausen and Sam Bradford, are both overrated in their own ways, and despite the hype that ESPN tends to give each one of them, it’s beginning to become clear that we may not see a quarterback in the top half of the draft, if not the first round of the draft. With Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett currently slated to be in the 2011 draft, there is absolutely no reason to draft one of these guys with the risk that is associated with taking them, especially when there are far better prospects at other positions on the board.
- With nine underclassmen at the wide receiver position having already declared for the draft, there’s a chance that senior receivers like Eric Decker of Minnesota and Mardy Gilyard of Cincinnati, players who I originally had rated as second-round picks, could fall to as far as the third or fourth round due to the depth of talent that is going to be coming out this year. Add in the fact that in the 2011 draft we could see Julio Jones of Alabama, A.J. Green of Georgia, Michael Floyd of Notre Dame, Jonathan Baldwin of Pittsburgh, and DeAndre Brown of Southern Miss, and the amount of talented wideouts in the next two years is going to give teams a reason to look at another position with their high picks. For example, if you can land one of the top offensive tackles in the first round, and then go wideout in the second round, and get nearly similar value at the position just a round later, then it’d make sense to wait on the position. It’s going to be interesting to see how teams value the receivers this year.
- As you can see in my latest mock draft, the strength of this draft class is going to fall in the trenches, where the offensive and defensive linemen, specifically at tackle, are all strong areas for 2010. There are six defensive tackles that I think you could justify using a first round pick on and there are seven offensive tackles who I think you could make an argument for. What this likely means is that teams at the top of the second round are going to get tremendous value and aren’t going to have to pay nearly as much for the talent that they are aquiring.
- At linebacker, both inside and outside, we are also seeing tremendous depth developing. Outside, Sergio Kindle, Navarro Bowman, Sean Weatherspoon, and Rennie Curran are all going to be coveted in the first two rounds. Inside, Rolando McClain and Brandon Spikes lead the way, while Michigan State’s Greg Jones could be another first rounder if he decides to declare. Teams with a need a linebacker should be able to fill those holes rather easily in 2010.
- One last position that I wanted to touch on is at tight end, where Jermaine Gresham and Aaron Hernandez lead the way. If Arizona’s Rob Gronkowski ends up deciding to declare, then we could potentially have three first round talents in the 2010 draft. From what I’ve been told, Hernandez is going to be extremely impressive at the Combine and that could propel him into the first round. Gronkowski is talented player out of Arizona who missed this season, like Gresham, due to injury. He will decide on whether to declare later this week.
- Last, but not least, I plan on starting up my “If I Were GM” articles for the teams at the top of the draft order, discussing what plan I would have for each respective team if I were the General Manager of the team. Expect to see those start popping up this week. Also, in a few weeks I’ll be heading to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama for a third-straight year. I plan on updating furiously during the trip, and with Twitter becoming a new way for me to reach out to my readers, I’d suggest following me, as I’ll be updating live from practices while I’m in Mobile. Lastly, we’ve started selling pre-orders for the 2010 Draft Preview, which I’ve already started to get working on. Even with the college season officially done, I’m still scouting recordings that I made as well as additional film to try and accumulate as many notes and information as I can on every player. The 2009 Draft Preview was 159 pages with 226 player profiles; I’m anticipating the 2010 one being at least 180 pages with close to 240-250 players, especially with the large number of talented underclassmen declaring for the draft. Thanks to those that have already purchase a copy and thanks to those that will be doing so in the future. The Draft Preview is really what funds the site and helps to pay for hosting and what helps to fund all of the improvements and upgrades that we make to the site. You can purchase a copy here.