Why Sam Bradford is Overrated

In the last five to ten years, I don’t think I’ve seen a more overrated prospect than Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford. Since my player rankings were posted on the new site, I’ve received many questions as to why I have Bradford ranked so low. I’ve decided to respond to these questions with a lead article for Draft Headquarters. My belief of Bradford being overrated consists of several points, so I’ll attempt to lay those out below:

The System and Supporting Cast – The Oklahoma Sooners have a system that allows for the quarterback to have between three, four, and five options every time he is throwing the ball. It’s a wide open offense with an extremely talented supporting cast. Because Bradford has been injured so far this year, I’ll reflect back on last season’s performance.

Last season, Bradford played with the best tight end in the country, arguably the best offensive line which included Duke Robinson, Phil Loadholt, Trent Williams, and Jon Cooper, as well as two very talented running backs in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown, and three excellent receiving options in Juaquin Iglesias, Manuel Johnson, and Ryan Broyles. That also doesn’t include a defense that ranked among the best in the nation and made it extremely easy for Bradford to get the ball back in favorable conditions to boost the score and increase his stats. Bradford’s shoulder injury this year may show who he is as a quarterback without the nation’s top offensive line protecting him. Without having minutes to throw the ball, will he be capable of scrambling away and making plays while under pressure? His pocket presence this far sure hasn’t been anything outstanding.

So far in 2009, backup Landry Jones has re-started the engine of the system that is the Oklahoma offense. With 622 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions thus far, Jones’ stats eerily resemble the start that Bradford had in 2008 (578 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions in the Sooners’ first two games against Chattanooga and Cincinnati). With his current stats, Jones would be on pace for 4,043 yards through a 13-game schedule. With Bradford tallying 4,720 yards last year, you can thank Bradford’s better supporting cast in 2008 than Jones’ in 2009, and the numbers are obviously inflated because Bradford is a more talented player than Jones. Granted, Jones has played against Idaho State and Tulsa, not exactly the most daunting opponents, it’s further proof that Oklahoma’s system keeps running no matter who is one keeping it going. Jones set the school record for six touchdowns in a game last week against Tulsa. A near no-name backup with a mustache to suggest that he has absolutely no experience at the collegiate level, Jones has lit up his first two opponents that he’s gone up against.

One more note relating to the system. Many of the throws that Bradford has had to make in his college career have been easy and simple. Throwing screens and dump off passes to explosive running backs, tight ends, and receivers have shown exactly how Bradford’s stats can inflate with just one five-yard toss. Bradford’s reads and progressions are also simplified in the system. He has several options running favorable routes for the quarterback, such as five-to-ten yard underneath patterns and screens. When he did have to throw the ball down the field, he had the best tight end in the nation there to make acrobatic and spectacular catches in case Bradford was inaccurate, which happened often when I went back and looked at the tape.

Competition Level – Last season it was completely evident that the Big 12 was full of explosive offenses and defenses that barely were able to field a complete unit. In his last four regular season games of the Big 12 schedule last year, against Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Missouri, Bradford threw for 1,378 yards, 14 touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a combined 69.5% completion percentage. Also add in the fact that he was only sacked three times in the four games, thanks to that outstanding offensive line. Now, when you look at the fact that he threw for just 256 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, a 63.4% completion percentage, and was sacked twice in the BCS Championship Game against Florida, it’s unbelievably clear that Bradford’s stats and production have also come from playing against awful defenses in the Big 12. Obviously it was fun to watch from a fan’s perspective last year, but from a scout’s perspective, it throws up major red flags. How would Bradford do being an average offensive line and average wideouts against the Baltimore Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers defense. That’s what would happen if Bradford were to be drafted to the Cleveland Browns; with the way their season has gone it could happen. How will Bradford be able to adjust to playing against a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme, rather than going up against vanilla defenses that allow for him to drop back in the pocket for five, six, seven seconds and attempt to find a receiver to get the ball to.

Accuracy – While reviewing film from Bradford’s 2008 season, his accuracy was good, but not great. He made some good throws, mainly in the short-to-intermediate range, and especially on the dump off and screen passes. However, when throwing the ball down the field and up the seam, his accuracy quickly became worse and the ball seemed to float to his receivers with a hope that it might find its target. It’s amazing how good of a receiver tight end Jermaine Gresham is and if he hadn’t been injured this year, I could have seen him being a Top 5 pick in 2010. Gresham made Bradford look like a Heisman-winning quarterback, which is exactly what he was last year thanks to his supporting cast more than anything.

Arm Strength – In addition to having shaky accuracy at times, Bradford’s arm strength has also been vastly overrated. Sam struggles with throwing the ball outside of the numbers, something that any NFL quarterback MUST be able to do if he wants to have success. Just ask Joe Flacco. Bradford has shown that he has the arm strength to deliver the ball down the field, however he’s been inconsistent in being able to do this over and over again. How is that going to work in the NFL, when a large amount of the passes that an NFL quarterback throws are down the field? Arm strength is one of the last things that I’d be worried about from Bradford, but it still doesn’t equate to being a great attribute for him.

Leadership/Demeanor – When I look at a quarterback, the first thing that I do is ask myself immediately is what type of demeanor the player is showing and playing with. Does he look like a leader, or does he come off as just going through the motions that his system has set him up with? Does this quarterback look like a player that would be capable of putting my team on his shoulders and carrying them to a last-minute drive to win the Super Bowl? These are things that any talent evaluator should be looking for in a quarterback, as the quarterback is almost always the one player that a team needs to have to win games in the clutch. Just ask Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger from the last two years. If the quarterback isn’t showing confidence, then how can I have confidence in him as a prospect, and why would I want to draft him? This is one of the biggest attributes that I look at in a signal caller. A quarterback’s intangibles are among the most important things that he must have in order to succeed. When I look at Sam Bradford, he lacks a lot of these. I look at him and his demeanor suggests that he’s running an outstanding college system. He rarely shows leadership and his demeanor on the field comes off as him being sullen and depressed. He looks far from being a quarterback that would win a game for my team in at the NFL level. This is a major reason why I have him ranked lower than the other quarterbacks in the 2010 class.

History – In the last 40 years, there has been one quarterback from Oklahoma drafted, Josh Heupel, and he was cut before his rookie season started; in the last 10 years, there has been one Heisman Trophy winner (Carson Palmer) to have the type of success that would warrant the draft selection that Bradford would command in 2010. Jason White, the Heisman Trophy winner from Oklahoma, who won the trophy in 2003, went undrafted and did not find a home in the NFL. Bradford would have to buck several trends that have already been set in order to find success in the NFL.

If you add all of this up, you’ll now understand why I’m not a fan of Bradford’s. The argument above doesn’t even include his recent injury to his throwing shoulder, which could have an impact on the future of his career. NFL front offices are among the brightest people in the league in observing a player’s career and what their future could hold. Hopefully they learn that Bradford isn’t worthy of the Top 10 pick that most people assume he is worthy of being right now. If I were a general manager in the NFL, I would pass on Bradford in 2010, especially when you consider that better prospects in Jake Locker, Jevan Snead, and Colt McCoy are also up for grabs. Bradford simply isn’t worth the pick.